Between checking the news every five minutes and wondering if the Strait of Hormuz is about to become everyone’s problem, it’s easy to forget you still have trucks to load and rates to negotiate right here in North America.
Tariffs are reshuffling cost structures overnight. New regulations are rewriting operational playbooks. And somewhere in the middle of this chaos, cross-border policies are flipping routing strategies upside down.
The truth? You can’t reduce freight market volatility by pretending it doesn’t exist. Those “market fundamentals” everyone talks about? They’re shifting faster than a last-minute pickup request.
That’s why we’re cutting through the speculation and doom scrolling to focus on what’s real and what matters in this midyear freight market update: real impacts on real freight movements on real people.
Trump just declared the latest U.S.-China trade deal “done” after two days of London talks. Still, freight professionals might want to hold the champagne.
Chinese goods now face a 55% tariff — up from the previous 30% — while China keeps its duties at a more modest 10%. That 55% hits like a triple-punch combo: a baseline 10% “reciprocal” tariff on most trading partners, plus 20% specifically targeting Chinese imports, topped off with preexisting 25% levies from Trump’s first rodeo.
The damage shows up fast in the numbers — U.S. seaborne imports from China crashed 28.5% year over year in May, while overall container imports dropped 7.2% to 2.18 million TEUs. West Coast ports took the biggest hit, with Long Beach and Los Angeles watching China-origin imports nose-dive 31.6% and 29.9%, respectively. China felt the squeeze too, with shipments to the U.S. falling by $15.2 billion year over year to $28.8 billion in May.
Meanwhile, the dollar hit a three-year low on June 12, and freight teams are eyeing July 8, when the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs expires. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clearly stated that the 55% rate would “definitely” stick, so freight costs may have found their new normal.
Trump’s English proficiency executive order for Mexican truck drivers landed at an odd time. Mexico just wrapped up its 16th straight month as America’s largest trading partner, hitting $69.7 billion in two-way commerce — 26 out of the last 27 months at the top. Now we’re telling the drivers who haul most of that freight they need to pass an English test or get sidelined.
The regulatory chaos doesn’t end there. Mexican steel pays double duty thanks to tariff stacking — 25% for anti-fentanyl measures plus 50% for steel after Trump killed the rule preventing this scenario. Auto shipments face their own 25% hit, which already dropped Mexican vehicle exports by 7.1% in April as buyers rushed orders earlier to beat the tariffs. At least USMCA-qualifying goods still skip the 25% anti-fentanyl duty. However, that’s cold comfort when dealing with multiple moving targets.
Despite these friction points, Mexico keeps pushing forward with its “41 Poles of Development” initiative to create manufacturing hubs near transport corridors. At the same time, Chinese manufacturers quietly use Mexico as a back door to dodge U.S. tariffs. Cross-border operators are playing regulatory hopscotch — one wrong step and your shipment gets expensive quickly.
While tariffs and cross-border drama grab headlines, three other market forces quietly impact freight economics. Some good news, some bad news, and some “prepare for anything” type of narratives.
North American trucking remains in oversupply thanks to the 2021-22 carrier boom that left us with more trucks than loads. Spot rates stay subdued while weaker operators exit the market at a steady clip — C.H. Robinson projects the truckload sector might finally rebalance by early 2026 if current carrier attrition continues. Here’s the silver lining: All those extra trucks are soaking up disruptions like tariff changes and port strikes without creating lasting rate spikes. Even Memorial Day demand and the seasonal produce push only caused brief, localized price bumps. Shippers get to play in a buyer’s market while carriers sweat thin margins and bankruptcy risks.
Diesel prices dropped to $3.49 per gallon in May from $3.57 in April, continuing a multi-month slide that’s easing fuel surcharges for shippers and operating costs for carriers. Lower commodity prices and tariff reprieves like the China deal are helping contain inflation on imported goods, giving transportation budgets some breathing room. Analysts think the U.S.-China tariff rollback could boost consumer confidence and freight demand while keeping inflation in check. But stay tuned. High interest rates persist, and Moody’s recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating outlook over debt concerns. But wait, there is the Israel-Iran war taking place. Nobody knows what impact this escalating war could have on crude oil supply and, therefore, on diesel prices.
Driver availability looks solid thanks to oversupply, but Trump’s English proficiency rule could create cross-border driver shortages. And even though port operations have largely stabilized since 2023 labor negotiations, and Mexico’s recent container port strike wrapped up without major supply chain damage, the real wild cards come from Mother Nature and hackers — Western Canada’s early wildfire season already forced emergency declarations and temporarily shut down rail service near Winnipeg in May. Hurricanes, floods, or cybersecurity incidents could close key corridors with zero warning. That’s why smart operators invest in visibility tools and backup plans: Agility beats everything else when disruptions hit.
When freight market chaos hits faster than a surprise DOT inspection, most logistics teams scramble with outdated tools and crossed fingers. But at EKA Solutions, our flagship Omni-TMS™ turns reactive panicking into proactive strategy with visibility, automation, analytics, and more:
We’re midyear, and the freight market feels like riding a mechanical bull. Tariffs change faster than gas station prices, English proficiency rules threaten to sideline experienced drivers, and capacity gluts create weird market dynamics. We’ve watched China trade deals get declared “done” while Mexican steel gets hit with stacked tariffs, seen auto exports drop 7.1% from buyers gaming the system, and learned that wildfires are still … well, wildfires.
We built Omni-TMS specifically for freight markets like this one that refuses to sit still. Our platform handles compliance updates automatically, recalculates optimal routes when tariffs shift, and connects you with vetted capacity before disruptions cascade through your operations. Instead of chasing regulatory changes with spreadsheets and phone calls, Omni-TMS processes the data flood and serves up actionable decisions that protect your margins and delivery commitments. At EKA Solutions, we handle the complexity, you handle the rest.
Ready to stop playing defense against market volatility? Contact EKA Solutions and see how Omni-TMS turns freight chaos into your competitive advantage.
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